TRUMP, CARNEY, AND SHEINBAUM: ADJUSTMENTS TO THE USMCA

By Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Research Professor at El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (Colef).

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has been a key trade agreement in North America since its implementation in 2020.

However, discussions about possible modifications have recently emerged, with political figures such as Donald Trump, Mark Carney, and Claudia Sheinbaum pointing to the need for adjustments in 2026.

This situation raises questions about the future of the agreement and its impact on the economies of the three countries. The USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which had been in effect since 1994.

The new version of the agreement introduced significant changes in areas such as the automotive industry, labor rights, digital trade, and rules of origin. One of the fundamental objectives of the USMCA was to strengthen regional competitiveness by ensuring more equitable trade among the three North American countries.

The modifications established in the USMCA have been key for strategic sectors such as manufacturing, agricultural trade, and foreign investment. However, the agreement is subject to periodic reviews, with an evaluation scheduled for 2026 that could determine new conditions for North American trade.

In the current context, some leaders have expressed their perspectives on the USMCA and its future.

On the one hand, Donald Trump has emphasized the importance of the treaty benefiting the United States, suggesting that changes could be implemented if it is deemed not to be working optimally for his country.

Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, has expressed interest in renegotiation, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has indicated that there are no signs of the agreement disappearing, although its review is ongoing.

These positions reflect an environment of uncertainty, in which each nation seeks to ensure that the treaty continues to be beneficial to its economy. Any adjustments to the USMCA or USMCA could entail changes to tariffs, labor regulations, and investment rules, affecting key sectors in all three countries.

Each country has experienced different effects since the implementation of the USMCA.

In the United States, the agreement has strengthened sectors such as the automotive and technology sectors, increasing production on US soil thanks to stricter regulations on the origin of products.

In Mexico, the USMCA has been an engine of manufacturing growth, allowing for increased exports and attracting foreign investment, especially in the automotive and auto parts industries.

In Canada, the agreement has guaranteed access to the US market for agricultural and energy products, maintaining a stable flow of trade.

Current economic challenges, such as inflation and the reconfiguration of supply chains, could lead to further revisions to the agreement. Globalization and the transition toward more sustainable economies also play a key role in the potential evolution of the USMCA.

Therefore, any modification must consider the balance between competitiveness, labor protection, and economic development.

The debate over a new USMCA reflects the ongoing need for adaptation in trade agreements, based on the region's economic and political challenges. While the agreement has been a fundamental tool for North American economic growth and stability, a review with possible adjustments is likely to take place in 2026.

The key will be to find a balance that guarantees the mutual benefit of the three economies, without compromising the progress made in trade, investment, and international cooperation.

About the author:

Dr. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Research Professor of International Economics at Colef. Distinguished member of the National System of Researchers of the National Council for Humanities, Sciences, and Technologies (CONAHCYT) and now in the new Secretariat of Science, Humanities, Technology, and Innovation (SECIHTI).